There’s nothing like the promise of untold wealth to wash away the winter blues, and as the nation awoke to a new year of crippling debt, power cuts, falling buildings and gloomy economic forecasts, it was in need of some good news. What better palliative then, than the prospect of opening a hydrocarbon jackpot under the Lebanese ocean floor?
In the wake of its neighbors’ success in tapping the Eastern Mediterranean’s resources, Lebanon is finally pushing forward efforts to exploit its share of the seabed in search of the spoils of oil and gas. While politicians may promise immeasurable riches for one and all to share, the sage among the crowd will be observing developments with more than a hint of healthy cynicism. What lies trapped underground offshore is far from assured and a bountiful find could easily turn from a blessing to a curse for the country’s economy and body politic.
The potential stakes
In its first meeting of the year on January 4, the Council of Ministers passed an implementation decree pertaining to Lebanon’s Offshore Petroleum Resources Law (Law 132), which will enable the country to move forward into the exploration stage. The move has been a long time coming and was precipitated by the enviable finds in other areas of the Eastern Mediterranean.
“Of course there is a race to explore and drill because Israel and Cyprus are already ahead of us,” explains the Acting President of the Lebanese Economics Association (LEA) and Associate Professor of Economics at the American University of Beirut (AUB), Jad Chaaban.
Research has long hinted at the potential for hydrocarbons in the region’s waters, with a 2010 report by the United States Geological Survey estimating an average of 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 3.5 trillion cubic meters of recoverable gas in the Levant Basin Province, a geological formation in the Eastern Mediterranean extending from Syria to the Sinai.
Whilst Lebanon lags behind in terms of exploration and drilling, it has commissioned a number of the rather coarse two-dimensional and more refined three-dimensional seismic surveys from the firms Geco-Prakla, Spectrum Geo and most recently Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS). The findings indicate a number of unexplored potential hydrocarbon hotspots including the Syrian Arc, the Levant Basin Province and the Levant Margin in the 20,000 square kilometers of deep water in Lebanon’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) — the ocean area the country can claim ownership over with regards to resources from oil to oysters.
Houston-based Nobel Energy has been operating in Israeli waters since 1998 and has tapped into two massive fields in recent years. In 2009, Tamar, a 237 billion cubic meters (BCM) gross natural gas field, was successfully drilled and an additional 453 BCM of natural gas were discovered in the Leviathan field in late 2010 — the world’s largest deep water gas discovery in the last 10 years. With successful drilling in December 2011 into what could amount to 226 BCM of natural gas in the Aphrodite field in Cyprus’ maritime waters, the Eastern Mediterranean has very much aroused the attention of international oil companies (IOCs).